With Halloween behind us and the first snowfall nearing, residents of Ontario are preparing for the cold season ahead. The severity of this winter remains uncertain for Canada’s most populous province.
Long-range forecasts for the upcoming winter range from mostly wet and mild conditions to traditional winter patterns.
The latest outlook from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) provides a probabilistic forecast covering November through January. Unlike localized forecasts that focus on specific weather events, ECCC's forecast offers a nationwide trend prediction expressed in probabilities.
"Southern Ontario has a 30 per cent probability of above-seasonal temperatures from Nov. 2026, a 40 per cent chance of near-normal, and a 30 per cent chance of below-normal averages."
This probabilistic approach means the forecast is not definitive, leaving winter conditions somewhat unpredictable.
As winter arrives, Ontario faces uncertain weather patterns with nearly equal chances for warmer, average, or colder conditions over the next three months.
Ontario’s winter forecast is indecisive, showing nearly equal chances for warmer, average, or colder temperatures from November to January.